Floral Tariffs & Rising Costs In 2026: What’s Next
- April 15, 2026
- 6 minutes read
The tariff landscape for florists shifted dramatically in early 2026. A landmark Supreme Court ruling, new trade investigations, and ripple effects from the U.S.–Iran conflict are all hitting at once, reshaping the cost of doing business.
If you’ve been watching your cost of goods rise and wondering what comes next, you’re not alone. We attended the Society of American Florists (SAF) virtual member roundtable on March 16, 2026, featuring trade attorneys and economists, and pulled together the answers to the questions we’re all asking.
The Supreme Court ruling: what it actually means
In early 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the steep “reciprocal tariffs” that had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Court of International Trade confirmed the ruling applies nationwide.
What replaced them? The administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a flat 10% tariff on imports. (It was briefly announced at 15%, then corrected to 10% within days.) Critically, Section 122 tariffs can only remain in effect for 150 days unless Congress acts to extend them.
What this means for your business
Tariffs are still in effect on both cut flowers and hard goods, and rates have shifted since February. See how rates changed by country in our earlier breakdown.
Ecuadorian flowers: a potential rate reduction, with conditions
This is the update most cut-flower buyers have been waiting for. Currently, roses, carnations, and other cut flowers from Ecuador face a total tariff of 10% + 6.8% = 16.8%.
According to SAF Senior Lobbyist Joe Bischoff, the administration intends to return the rate to the previous 6.8% — but not before August 2026, and only if both governments sign a formal agreement.
16.8%
Current Ecuador rate
6.8%
Target rate (Aug 2026)
Aug 1
Earliest possible date
Important caveat
Ecuador is included in new Section 301 trade investigations launched into 60 economies, related to alleged forced labor. If Section 301 tariffs go into effect in July 2026 before the agreement is finalized, the situation could change again. There is no guarantee the reduction will happen on schedule.
Colombia, Peru, and other South American countries face similar uncertainty. The same Section 301 investigations cover Colombia and India, among others, meaning importers of cut flowers and hard goods from multiple origins are in a holding pattern.
Will tariff refunds actually happen?
From early summer 2025 until recently, the U.S. government collected approximately $170 billion through the now-invalidated emergency tariffs. The Court of International Trade mandated that refunds begin clearing on March 19, 2026. So — will you get your money back?
Q: Who is eligible for a refund?
Refunds are issued at the importer-of-record level, meaning the businesses that paid customs directly. If you purchased flowers or goods from a domestic importer or wholesaler, you are not directly eligible for a refund, even if you absorbed higher costs through elevated pricing.
Q: How long will it take?
According to trade experts at the SAF roundtable, the best-case scenario is that importers will begin receiving refund checks about a year from now. The litigation is still unresolved, and many experts are skeptical that refunds will come quickly, or at all. Some experts warn that the process could take months or even years.
Q: Will lower tariffs mean lower flower prices?
Almost certainly not. Once prices rise due to tariffs, they tend to stay elevated — even if underlying costs decrease. Economists at the SAF roundtable were unambiguous on this point: consumer prices are unlikely to fall even if importers receive refunds or tariff rates drop.
“Once prices increase due to tariffs, they tend to remain elevated — even after the tariff is removed.”
— SAF Chief Economist Charlie Hall, March 2026
The Iran conflict: more costs ahead
On top of tariffs, the U.S.–Iran conflict is adding pressure across the floral supply chain. Air freight costs have already gone up, directly affecting the cost of imported cut flowers. Fertilizer prices have also risen sharply — and could go up as much as 400%. That’s a major hit for growers, and those costs will work their way through to your invoices.
Planning consideration
If your cost of goods for domestically grown flowers has been stable, that may change in the coming seasons as fertilizer costs hit U.S. and South American growers. Now may be a good time to review your pricing structure and build in flexibility for input cost increases.
The bigger picture: 2025 vs. 2026
In 2025, the inflation impact of tariffs was softer than many expected. Two factors cushioned the blow: businesses that pre-stocked inventory before tariffs hit, and businesses that absorbed roughly 80% of tariff costs themselves rather than passing them to consumers.
That cushion is gone. Inventory imported before tariffs has largely been depleted. Businesses are no longer willing — or financially able — to absorb costs at the same rate. In 2026, more tariff costs will be passed directly to consumers. Combined with rising freight and fertilizer costs, the floral industry should plan for meaningfully higher input costs throughout the year.
Key questions florists are asking
Q: Should I be stockpiling inventory right now?
Conditions are different from early 2025 — the inventory runway is shorter and the policy outlook is more uncertain. The Section 301 investigations launching in July could change rates across multiple origins simultaneously. If you source heavily from Ecuador or Colombia, monitor July developments closely before making large commitments.
Q: Is there a list of current tariff rates by country?
Yes. We track tariff rate changes on our blog as policy shifts. Check our latest update here. For the exact rate on your specific products, ask your wholesaler which countries they’re sourcing from and whether pricing has changed.
Q: What about the $800 de minimis exemption?
The Trump administration ended the de minimis rule — which exempted imports under $800 from duties — and despite the Supreme Court ruling on the emergency tariffs, a separate executive order confirmed de minimis remains eliminated. It is unlikely to return in the near term.
Bottom line for your business
Uncertainty is the dominant theme of 2026. Policy can shift week to week, and multiple legal proceedings are still playing out. Here’s what we know with reasonable confidence:
- Ecuador tariffs remain at 16.8% through at least August 2026; a reduction to 6.8% is possible but not guaranteed.
- Section 301 investigations into 60 countries, including Colombia and Ecuador, could introduce new tariffs as early as July.
- Tariff refunds are possible but could take a year or more, and are not guaranteed.
- Inflation from tariffs will be stronger in 2026 than in 2025, as the buffering effect of pre-tariff inventory is gone.
- Rising energy, freight, and fertilizer costs will compound tariff pressure on flower costs.
- Even if tariff rates drop, don’t expect flower prices to decline — market prices tend to be sticky.
We’ll continue to monitor tariff developments and update you as things change. Check our blog for the latest updates.
Source: Society of American Florists (SAF) Virtual Member Roundtable — “Tariffs & Conflict with Iran Impact on the Floral Industry,” March 16, 2026. Panelists: Joe Bischoff, Ph.D. (SAF Senior Lobbyist); Charlie Hall, Ph.D. (SAF Chief Economist); David Olave (International Trade Attorney).
